India's Exports Are at a Record. The Missing Piece Is Trade Intelligence

Short answer: India exported a record US$863.1 billion of goods and services in FY2025-26, but goods exports grew only 0.93%, and fewer than 1% of registered MSMEs export at all. NITI Aayog calls market access a significant obstacle and recommends an AI-based data intelligence portal for exporters. A trade intelligence system turns scattered trade data, buyer signals and inquiries into decisions. Prythos is building one, starting with an AI export revenue agent.

In June 2026, Delhi Police busted a fake export consultancy call centre. Its callers promised exporters help getting orders from international buyers, took fees, and sent fabricated messages posing as foreign buyers. Police linked 19 complaints and Rs 10,57,780 to the syndicate.

The scam worked because exporters want something real: a way to find genuine buyers and turn inquiries into orders. That need is large. This post lays out what the data says about it, where the gaps are, and what a trade intelligence system should do about them.

India's exports are at a record, but the growth is lopsided

India's total exports of goods and services reached a record US$863.1 billion in FY2025-26, according to figures reported by All India Radio on 29 July 2026. That is slightly above the US$860.09 billion initial estimate reported in April. Merchandise exports were US$441.8 billion and services exports were US$421.3 billion. By our calculation, services made up about 48.8% of the total.

The goods side moved far more slowly. India Briefing reports merchandise exports of US$441.74 billion, up only 0.93% from US$437.70 billion a year earlier. Non-petroleum exports reached US$387.88 billion, up 3.62%.

The global picture is improving. The WTO raised its 2026 forecast for world merchandise trade growth to 3.9% and its 2027 forecast to 4.1%, according to AP. AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers made up 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. The same report lists risks: the Middle East conflict, which is pushing up energy prices and disrupting transport routes, and the possibility of a slowdown in AI investment.

For an exporter of goods, that is a mixed signal. Global demand is growing, but it is concentrated in specific product categories, and India's own goods growth was thin. Knowing which products, which markets and which buyers are growing is a competitive advantage, not a nice-to-have.

The MSME paradox: nearly half of goods exports, under 1% of firms

Micro, small and medium enterprises are central to Indian exports. In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha on 8 December 2025, the MSME ministry said the MSME share of India's merchandise exports rose from 45.74% in 2023-24 to 48.55% in 2024-25.

Yet very few MSMEs export. NITI Aayog's Boosting Exports from MSMEs report (March 2024) found that only 0.95% of MSMEs engage in exports: over 1.5 lakh of the 1.58 crore MSMEs registered on the Udyam portal claim to export goods or services. Note that these are two different measures: one is a share of export value, the other a share of firms.

Forvis Mazars analysed the same gap and concluded it is driven mainly by a lack of export readiness at the enterprise level, not a lack of opportunity. It points to three execution gaps: capability constraints, sectoral concentration and fragmented access to support systems.

What holds exporters back, according to NITI Aayog

The NITI Aayog report is unusually specific about the barriers. It names:

• Market access, called a "significant obstacle" for MSME exports.
• Scale and compliance, including cost-effective production and logistics.
• Paperwork across multiple portals, with physical documents and hard payment reconciliation for new or small exporters.
• Finance, with ECGC scheme uptake of "only 10%".
• Weak data, with existing MSME export estimates described as likely unreliable and departments "reluctant to share information".

It also makes a recommendation that sits close to what Prythos is building: a "One Stop Information Channel", an AI-based data intelligence portal under the Ministry of Commerce that would answer exporters' questions on tariffs, paperwork, finance, service providers, incentives and potential buyers. The report notes that existing portals often have incomplete or outdated information.

New trade agreements: more doors, more homework

India's trade agreement network is widening. The table below is drawn from a Ministry of Commerce factsheet uploaded in March 2026. Statuses change quickly, so check the ministry's site for the latest.

Our reading: every new agreement adds options, and every option adds research. Which tariff lines changed, which buyers are active in the newly opened market, and which rules of origin apply are questions a small exporter cannot answer by browsing portals. This is our inference, not a finding from the factsheet.

Trust is the hidden cost of finding buyers

Finding a buyer is only half of the problem. The other half is knowing whether the buyer is real.

The June 2026 Delhi case shows one side. According to the report, victims paid a Rs 5,000 registration amount, then Rs 19,780 for export service packages and Rs 41,300 for purported certification. The callers used international WhatsApp numbers and impersonated foreign buyers. Police reported arrests, including the alleged owner of the call centre.

The older pattern is the fake buyer. In 2015, Apparel Resources reported on Samarth Sangal, CEO of Textile Stock in Delhi, who shipped cushions to a first-time buyer for a 10% advance. The buyer renegotiated prices after delivery and then stopped responding. The Export Credit Guarantee Corporation had no information on him. Sangal said a 10% advance is inadequate for new buyers and argued that exporters need a platform to support them in such situations and a system to ban fraudulent buyers. That case is more than a decade old, but the underlying problem, verifying who is on the other side of an inquiry, has not gone away.

Practical takeaways from these two cases:

1. Be wary of anyone who charges fees in exchange for promising orders from foreign buyers.
2. Treat a first-time buyer differently from a repeat buyer when setting payment terms.
3. Check what is known about a buyer before shipping, and keep records of every inquiry and its outcome.

What people in the trade have said

Community discussions on Reddit, LinkedIn and X are a good barometer of exporter sentiment, but we only quote sources we could open and read in full. Here is what we could verify:

• NITI Aayog (official): market access is a "significant obstacle", and existing portals have incomplete or outdated information. It recommends an AI-based data intelligence portal.
• Samarth Sangal, Textile Stock (trade press, 2015): exporters need a platform to support them and a system to ban fraudulent buyers.
• Forvis Mazars (professional analysis): the export gap is about readiness and execution, not lack of opportunity.
• WTO (as summarised by the CADE Project): AI could boost global trade by up to 37% by 2040, mainly through digitally deliverable services, but could also widen the gap between advanced and developing economies without investment in digital infrastructure and skills.

If you have a first-hand view on finding buyers, qualifying inquiries or following up, we would like to hear it. Contact us.

What is a trade intelligence system?

A trade intelligence system is software that turns scattered trade data, buyer signals and incoming inquiries into decisions an exporter can act on. It is different from a lead list or a database. A list tells you who exists. An intelligence system tells you who is worth pursuing, what to say, what happened last time, and what to do next.

In our view, such a system has four jobs:

1. Discover: which products, markets and buyers are worth pursuing, backed by evidence.
2. Qualify: whether a given inquiry is real, relevant and worth the exporter's time.
3. Execute: turning an inquiry into a quote and following it up until the buyer answers.
4. Learn: recording what happened, so the next decision is better.

In our view, the value is in connecting all four, because that is what turns data into revenue.

Where Prythos fits

Prythos is building an intelligence layer for international trade. Our first product is the Prythos Export Revenue Agent, an AI agent that works from the inquiry to the outcome: RFQ, qualification, quote, follow-up, outcome.

• RFQ: reads messy buyer requests and extracts product, specifications, quantity, target price, destination, Incoterms and delivery terms into a structured record.
• Qualification: checks buyer relevance, product match, ability to fulfil, order value and missing information, then prioritises.
• Quote: helps prepare a complete quotation. The exporter approves every commercial step.
• Follow-up: tracks where each conversation stands and prompts the next action.
• Outcome: records won, lost and why, such as price, MOQ, delivery or compliance. Over time that builds intelligence on which buyers, countries and products convert.

Our longer-term path runs from trade intelligence to opportunity discovery, buyer intelligence, the export revenue agent, revenue intelligence and export execution. We are not claiming results yet. Prythos is pre-launch, and our promise is a modest one: turn every export inquiry into a structured, intelligent revenue workflow, with a person approving each commercial step.

The data in this post is why we are building it. The gap is not demand. It is the work between an inquiry and an order, and the intelligence needed to do that work well. See how the product works or explore the product.

Frequently asked questions

What is trade intelligence?

Trade intelligence is the use of trade data, market signals and buyer information to make export decisions. A trade intelligence system goes further than a database: it ranks opportunities, helps qualify inquiries, supports quoting and follow-up, and learns from outcomes.

How much did India export in FY2025-26?

India's total exports of goods and services reached a record US$863.1 billion in FY2025-26, according to figures reported by All India Radio. Merchandise exports were US$441.8 billion and services exports were US$421.3 billion. Goods exports grew 0.93%, according to India Briefing.

What share of India's exports come from MSMEs?

MSMEs accounted for 48.55% of India's merchandise exports in 2024-25, up from 45.74% in 2023-24, according to a Rajya Sabha reply by the MSME ministry on 8 December 2025.

Why do so few Indian MSMEs export?

NITI Aayog found that only 0.95% of MSMEs export. It names market access, compliance and paperwork, finance, scale and weak data as barriers. Forvis Mazars adds that the gap is mainly about export readiness at the enterprise level, not a lack of opportunity.

How can exporters avoid fake buyers and export scams?

Be wary of anyone who charges fees for promising foreign orders, as in the June 2026 Delhi case. Treat first-time buyers with caution on payment terms, and check what is known about a buyer before shipping. These are practical takeaways from two reported cases, not legal advice.

Can AI replace an export manager?

No. AI can read inquiries, qualify them and prepare quotes faster, but the Prythos approach keeps the exporter in control: a person approves every commercial step. The WTO also notes that the gains from AI depend on investment in digital infrastructure, energy and skills.

What is Prythos and when does it launch?

Prythos is an AI trade intelligence company building the Export Revenue Agent for exporters, starting in India. The product is pre-launch and a public launch date has not been announced. You can join the waitlist for updates.

Sources and methodology

We use official statements, trade press and professional analysis. We link every figure to the page we read. Where two sources differ, we say so. Figures are as reported on the dates shown and may be revised.

1. All India Radio News: India's total exports reach record US$863.1 billion in 2025-26 (29 July 2026)
2. India Briefing: India's Trade Performance in FY 2025-26
3. IANS: India's total exports register 4.22 pc growth at US$860.09 billion in FY26 (April 2026 headline estimate)
4. AP via WTNH: WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East (8 October 2026)
5. Asharq Al-Awsat: WTO raises 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% on AI boom (9 October 2026)
6. India Seatrade News: India's MSME export share climbs to 48.55% in FY25 (9 December 2025)
7. NITI Aayog: Boosting Exports from MSMEs (March 2024)
8. Forvis Mazars India: Why ~99% of MSMEs don't export
9. Ministry of Commerce and Industry: FTAs achievement factsheet (March 2026)
10. Asianet Newsable: Delhi Police bust fake call centre cheating exporters (25 June 2026)
11. Apparel Resources: Beware Miguel of Concora Special, Barcelona is a fake buyer (1 April 2015)
12. CADE Project: WTO report notes AI's potential benefit to trade if divides are addressed

Limits of this analysis: the 0.95% MSME export figure dates from March 2024 and the Udyam registry changes. Reports differ slightly on the WTO's earlier 2027 forecast, so we cite only the new 2026 and 2027 figures. The 2015 fake-buyer case is old and is used to show a long-running pattern, not current statistics.

Ready to turn inquiries into orders? Join the Prythos waitlist.